Bitcoin (BTC) has plunged to around $60,000, nearly half of its all-time high, spreading despair across the broader market, yet major figures in the cryptocurrency space are voicing a shared view that the current pain may actually be the final signal marking the end of a prolonged bear market.
According to cryptocurrency-focused outlet CCN on February 6 (local time), Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, diagnosed the current digital asset market as having reached the peak of a full-fledged Crypto Winter that began in January 2025. Hougan compared the present downturn to the brutal struggle of the protagonist attacked by a bear in the film “The Revenant,” analyzing that the extreme pain and sense of isolation experienced by Bitcoin investors paradoxically serve as a powerful indicator that the market is near its bottom. Citing the fact that past crypto bear markets have lasted an average of 13 months, he suggested that the current down cycle is approaching its endpoint.
The digital asset market has suffered a decline of more than 30% in just the past month, marking its most severe test since the LUNA collapse in 2022. Hougan stated that the despair and pessimism permeating the market are classic signs that typically appear just before multiple past Crypto Winters came to an end, adding that the psychological breaking point felt by investors is highly likely to align with the market’s technical bottom. He expressed cautious optimism that once this harsh winter, which tests the market’s fundamental resilience rather than being a simple price correction, passes, a strong rebound phase will follow.
Capital flows from institutional investors and on-chain data also support the view that the market is entering a capitulation phase. Repeated large outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and a sharp decline in open interest are interpreted as part of a process in which excessive leverage is being unwound. Major asset managers, including Bitwise, are recalibrating their investment strategies by focusing less on short-term price volatility and more on structural changes that may emerge after the market-cleansing process. Hougan emphasized that moments when helplessness dominates the market often become the most critical inflection points from a long-term perspective.
The crypto industry believes that the resolution of external uncertainties, such as regulatory policies under the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump and geopolitical risks stemming from the Middle East, will serve as decisive catalysts for exiting the bear market. Hougan remarked that “the end of a bear market arrives not with a flashy rebound but amid profound boredom and indifference,” advising investors to focus on whether the market’s underlying structure is improving rather than on immediate price recovery. In particular, the fierce battle around the $60,000 support level is viewed as an essential bottom-building process for entering the next bull market.
Analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s long winter is finally racing toward its conclusion, and that the present moment, when market pessimism is at its peak, represents the final growing pains before recovery. Hougan and the Bitwise research team projected that if the 13-month rule shown in historical data holds true again, the market will move into a period of consolidation before gradually returning to stability. Investors, instead of being swept up by fear, are waiting for a macro environment to form in which Bitcoin can rebuild trust, while reflecting on past examples of overcoming bear markets.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and no responsibility is assumed for any investment losses incurred based on its content. The information provided should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.*
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