XRP 65% Correction… Is the $1 Level the Last Line of Defense?
XRP (Ripple) has fallen by nearly 65% from its all-time high, raising growing warnings that it has moved beyond a corrective phase and entered a zone of structural downside risk.
According to cryptocurrency-focused outlet AMB Crypto on February 6 (local time), XRP is currently trading around $1.29, down about 64.8% from last year’s peak of $3.66. Much of the sharp rally that persisted from November last year has been erased, fueling broader market caution over the potential for further declines.
On-chain indicators clearly signal capital outflows. The realized market cap impulse, which reflects capital inflows and outflows across the network, has been falling rapidly and is attempting to enter negative territory. This suggests investors are prioritizing capital preservation over further upside, closing positions accordingly.
At the same time, contrasting trends are being observed in the spot market. Since early September last year, XRP has recorded weekly net outflows from exchanges, with approximately $89 million worth of tokens withdrawn over the most recent week alone. While retail investors appear to be holding spot positions in anticipation of a rebound, analysts note that with the pace of price declines accelerating, it remains unclear whether this represents proactive bottom buying or simply a wait-and-see stance.
Additional warning signs are also emerging from a market structure perspective. The MVRV Z-score is maintaining a precarious balance near the zero line, and analysts suggest that a downside break could intensify a full-fledged distribution phase. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), which reflects unrealized gains and losses, is likewise hovering near a turning point, indicating that a large share of investors may soon enter loss territory.
Technical pressure has also increased. The $1.29 level corresponds to the lower boundary of a key demand zone, and without meaningful defense in this area, market focus is likely to shift quickly toward the $1.00 level. This would represent a correction of roughly 72% from the peak, reinforcing the prevailing view that XRP currently stands at a crossroads between a short-term rebound and further downside.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and the publisher holds no responsibility for any investment losses based on its content. The information should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.*
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